Every Senate, Governor and House race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side. Watch where the venues disagree, compare races, and overlay crude oil and social sentiment to see what moves the odds.
Kalshi Polymarket Dem Rep
Correlation of daily P(Dem) changes with each overlay over the selected range, plus the lag (days) with the strongest relationship. Correlation isn't causation — small samples are noisy.
Current prices come from each venue's market metadata; the trend lines come from Kalshi's public candlestick history and Polymarket's CLOB price history. Our Kalshi order-book feed has been stale since Oct 21, 2026, but these charts don't depend on it, so Kalshi lines stay current. P(Dem) uses the Democratic contract where one exists, otherwise 1 − the Republican price; the gap is Kalshi − Polymarket. Not investment advice.